In 2025, housing market activity in Calgary transitioned from one that favoured the seller to more balanced conditions as improving supply in the new home, rental, and resale markets occurred just as demand returned to more typical levels, mostly due to slower migration levels. This took much of the pressure off home prices, especially in the apartment and row segments, which reported the largest gains in supply compared to long-term trends.
As we move into 2026, supply levels are expected to remain elevated for higher-density homes, as 2025’s record high starts will continue to add supply to the rental and new home market as those units are completed. The elevated inventory levels should cool new home starts this year, taking the pressure off supply growth by the end of 2026 and into 2027.
Previous population gains and job growth are expected to keep sales in line with long-term trends. But no further uptick in demand is expected, given the shift in migration and employment in the city. The recent MOU regarding new pipeline development and shifts in regulatory policy, signed by the provincial and federal government, provides significant upside for our city and province should progress be made. However, the economic benefits would not be expected to influence the housing market this year.
Elevated supply across new, resale, and rental markets, combined with stable demand, is expected to prolong the time it takes to absorb the additional resale supply currently in the market. Overall, balanced to buyer’s market conditions are expected to persist in 2026, depending on the property type.
The additional supply in the apartment and row segments of the market is expected to weigh on resale prices in those segments. Meanwhile, annual prices should stabilize in the more balanced detached and semi-detached segments. Nonetheless, further annual price declines for apartment and row-style homes will continue to weigh on total residential prices, which are expected to ease slightly over last year.
Economic Summary
The economy fared better than most expected in 2025, but conditions have varied across the country as some provinces were harder hit by U.S. trade policies. Resource-rich economies like Alberta and Saskatchewan have been leading the country in growth, a trend that is expected to continue over the next two years.
While significant upside potential exists for the province given recent pullbacks of regulatory policies, the benefit from rising energy investment activity is not expected to occur in 2026, especially given the weaker energy price environment. In the meantime, we continue to benefit from investment in petrochemicals, hydrogen, food processing, tech, critical minerals, and aviation. While relative affordability is still a benefit for our province, migration is expected to slow in Calgary as unemployment rates remain elevated. With inflation returning to target levels, the Bank of Canada is likely done cutting rates in 2026, but previous increases in the cost of living will continue to weigh on consumers.
Read the full report here.